The Weather Rock by Jack Bailey-5/8/2018

5/08/2018

The Weather Rock

Greetings from the Weather Rock!  After what I posted last month, especially to those of you who never heard of The Weather Rock before, I want to explain some things….but first a bit about the next month’s weather….

If you recall in last month’s report, it was said, that the coolness of April, would run well into May, further delaying our growing season. Other than a few days with a late-afternoon 80’s, it has been cloudy and cool.  I have seen a lot of gardens with ‘slow-growers’ in them.  That time may actually end in just a day or two and should be good for about two weeks with temps slightly above normal.  We will then, probably, go back below normal for the rest of the month of May.  Precipitation is a little harder to predict, given the jet stream and it’s wild swings….but, in a Little Ice Age Event, it is mostly too wet or too dry.  Brian Fagan’s The Little Ice Age (history of) states in his book….”when the Little Ice Age began, in 1300 a.d., it rained, and it rained, and it rained….and then it rained some more”.  I lean toward too wet, especially here in the mountains & did I say cloudy?….LOW LEVEL CLOUDY!!  Anyway, we can always irrigate if it’s dry (with some planning)!  Where do I get these forecasts?  I get them from a fellow named Joe Bastardi.  When I started with Joe he was the chief, long range forecaster, at Accuweather.com., that was in early 2000.  He now owns WeatherBELL Analytics and with Joe D’Aleo (co-founder of the Weather Channel) provide long-range forecasting for farms like my own.

Our Summer should be a degree above normal with above normal rainfall.  That said, corn and beans are very late going into the ground because of the cold and the wet in April….by the way…April was the COLDEST on record….for the whole nation….EVER!  The Weather Channel has NOT disputed this.

Because of this planting delay there is a concern….the ‘two Joes’ use analogs (snapshots of past patterns of similar weather) to predict and the analogs see cool patterns in late Summer and early Fall.  There is always a concern for early, harvest time frosts or worse.

I’m feel some of you may have been shocked by my provocative statements in what may have been your first “the Weather Rock”.  My journey began in the early 1990’s with the history of Little Ice Age Events.  There is a written historical record that goes back into the Dark Ages.  We have the sunspot data that goes back to around 1600 a.d. We have the Greenland Ice Cores GISP1 and GISP2 a two-mile yearly record 110,000 years deep, also the Russian’s Vostok  ice cores from Antarctica.  There is tree ring and sedimentary data from beneath the seas.  The cores detail the climate and complement each other.

Then there are the scientists.  Theodor Landscheidt….early astrophysicist who in the middle 1950s discovered the pattern of deep solar minimums that occurred on a regular schedule causing Little Ice Age events.  He thought they occurred every 180 years.  Today, it has been refined to 209 years.  The disturbance in the geomagnetic field of our solar system that makes our Sun sleep every 209 years is caused by the combined conjunction of Uranus and Neptune with some interaction with the planet Saturn.  It is believed that the position of Saturn determines the “depth” of the Deep Solar Minimum.  Global temperature can go down as much as 4 degree F. and last through 2 extended solar cycles….thirteen years long instead of eleven.  The Sun then goes back to normal and the cycle repeats itself in 209 yrs.  NASA Shuttle engineer John Casey completed the work around 2010 with the establishment of cycle length (209 yrs) and a book called “Cold Sun”.  (It reads like a Weather Rock, I was very taken back.)  The result of this disturbance is less output from our Sun for a short amount of time (no sunspots and TSI or total solar irradiance goes down).  All this equals shortened growing seasons.  This is what it’s all about!

2007 is the year that it started.  In April of 2007 it went to 16 degrees F. for four (4) nights.  This has NEVER happened before.  It was the first, long, deep, temperature anomaly.  You remember how the whole Eastern United States looked after that period.  Every leaf and blossom died on those nights.

There are many times I wish I did not know about all this.  Sandi and I talk of this, often.  It is surely disturbing.  There are over 8 billion people in this world.

Next month I will tell you why the eruption in Hawaii is important.

From a Weather Rock that wishes it didn’t know so much….

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